Hoping for de-escalation, Biden declares Netanyahu the winner (2024)

The Iranian attack on Israel on Saturday, with around 300 missiles and drones, is unprecedented. Former Admiral John Kirby admitted as much to the television station CNN over the weekend. The 60-year-old is Joe Biden's most important press spokesman when it comes to security issues.

In dicey situations like this, the American president likes to rely on Kirby. And even in this difficult interview, the confident communicator was not flustered. Although the Iranian escalation was unprecedented, it represented an «incredible success» for Israel, Kirby claimed. In military terms, the wave of attacks had hardly caused any damage, and diplomatically it had become clear that Israel still had Arab friends in its neighborhood who were willing to help the country. Biden therefore congratulated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this great military achievement in his telephone conversation on Saturday evening.

New momentum for aid to Ukraine?

The U.S. commitment to Israel's security is «ironclad,» Biden also assured Netanyahu in the call. On the president's orders, the U.S. military deployed additional aircraft and warships with air defense systems to the region last week, according to the official White House statement on the telephone conversation. However, it did not mention what the government later leaked to the press: Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. would not take part in a retaliatory strike against Iran. «You got a win. Take the win,» he is said to have told the Israeli head of government.

The American president's message to Israel seems clear: The Iranian attack was a failure that does not require an immediate response to deter future Iranian aggression. Senator Chris Coons – a Democrat from Delaware and a confidant of the President – expressed similar sentiments over the weekend. He recommended that Israel take a «pause» in the conflict with Iran for the time being in order to think about an appropriate response. The best measure to deter Iran is now in the hands of the Republicans in the House of Representatives. Speaker Mike Johnson must finally bring the aid package for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan to a vote this week, after a months-long blockade, Coons wrote on the short message service X.

Two months ago, the U.S. Senate approved additional aid of around $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. Many Republican members of Congress would probably also vote for the package. However, under pressure from the right wing of his party and Donald Trump, Speaker Johnson has not yet put the bill to a vote. Instead, he campaigned for a law that only provides aid money for Israel. Meanwhile, Trump proposed converting the support for Ukraine into a loan.

Johnson promised over the weekend to bring an aid package for Israel to a vote in the next few days. However, he left open whether the bill will also include funds for Ukraine.

Republican calls for retaliation

Not only Democrats, but also pro-Ukrainian Republicans want to use the escalation in the Middle East to finally get the large aid package for Kyiv, Jerusalem and Taipei through Congress. This will also strengthen the U.S. arms industry, wrote Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell in a statement: «We cannot prevent conflict through deterrence without showing resolve and investing seriously in America's strength.»

However, McConnell also attacked Biden. The American president must inflict enough damage on Iran to end the regime's aggression, he said: «Iran's leaders should know that the things they hold most dear are at stake.» At the same time, however, Biden must also allow Israel sufficient time and support to deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. «Tehran and its allies are emboldened when they see the U.S. and Israel at odds.»

Trump's former security adviser John Bolton, a foreign policy hawk in Washington, was even more outspoken. Israel can only restore deterrence against Iran through a disproportionate response, he said in an interview on CNN on Sunday. There are various options – such as attacks on the Iranian oil industry or the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards. Above all, however, this could be an opportunity for Israel to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Should Biden actually urge the Israelis to refrain from a retaliatory strike, the president would be «a disgrace to the United States,» Bolton said.

Attack was «at the upper limit»

The situation shows how narrow Biden's room for maneuver in this conflict has become. For his reelection in the fall, he needs the support of Arabs and left-wing Democratic voters. Both groups are deeply disappointed with the Biden administration's solidarity with Israel so far. In order to win back these pro-Palestinian demographics, the American president is currently pushing for an immediate cease fire between Israel and Hamas, as well as long-term talks on a two-state solution.

After the Israeli armed forces recently killed seven humanitarian aid workers in the Gaza Strip, Biden threatened to attach conditions to American military aid. Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer even called for new elections in Israel and declared Netanyahu's political era to be over. But neither Hamas and Iran nor Netanyahu's war cabinet seem to want to follow Biden's script for de-escalation. The Islamist resistance movement in the Gaza Strip is in no hurry to agree to an exchange of hostages with Israel. Israel, on the other hand, probably fomented the current escalation on April 1, with the targeted killing of senior Iranian military leaders at the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Tehran, for its part, decided to launch an unprecedented attack on Israel in return.

The Iranian regime was not deterred by Biden's warnings. The attack was «at the upper limit» of what was expected, White House staff told journalists on Sunday. «There was a clear intention to cause considerable destruction and loss of life.»

To demonstrate Western unity, the U.S. President consulted with the leaders of the seven major industrialized countries (G7) in a video call on Sunday: The U.S., Italy, Japan, Germany, France, the U.K. and Canada issued a joint statement expressing their solidarity with Israel and emphasizing their desire to prevent further escalation. Iran is unlikely to be impressed.

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